Parts of the UK move closer to drought

Image source, BBC Weather Watchers / alpaca lady Image caption, Dry, cracked earth is already evident in some parts of the UK, such as here in Cambridgeshire

Parts of southern, central and eastern England are now close to drought, according to the National Drought Group.

As of Monday, East Anglia, the West Midlands, Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, Hertfordshire and London, Wessex, Thames, Solent and the South Downs, are in "prolonged dry weather", the stage before drought.

The group, which brings together the Met Office, the National Farmers' Union, water companies and other expert bodies, made the announcement on Tuesday.

The impacts of the dry weather are being felt on public water supplies with 23 million people facing restrictions. Agriculture and wildlife are also experiencing consequences.

Summer so far has been exceptionally hot and dry across much of the UK, with three widespread heatwaves and the longest run of dry days in central England since 1995. England, Wales and eastern Scotland have been the driest areas over recent weeks, and this follows a very dry spring in similar regions.

England has received only 3% of its long-term average July rainfall with the south and east of England seeing no rain at all. Wisley in Surrey has seen 33 consecutive dry days.

Rainfall so far this summer has been below average across the UK as a whole, but there has been large regional contrast.

Up to the middle of summer - 15 July - parts of eastern and north-eastern England had received just 26% of their total expected summer rainfall. Areas of northern and western Scotland had more than average for the first half of the summer, though.

Comparisons are being made with last summer, when drought was declared across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland. It officially ended just four months ago.

This year, drought has not developed as quickly because heavy rainfall recharged our aquifers, rivers and reservoirs during a very wet autumn and winter.

However, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology says flash droughts , external with a sudden transition between wet and dry conditions are "likely to happen more often, and be more intense".

Image caption, The week ahead brings very little rainfall to most places away from north-west Scotland

Image source, Mike Kemp Image caption, Grass has turned brown and parched in many locations around the UK

High pressure stays in charge for the rest of this week, meaning no significant rainfall for at least the next five days. We could see a few midweek showers especially near coasts in south-east England and East Anglia, as well as northern Scotland.

Through the weekend, rain-bearing weather fronts will try to move in from the north-west, but most of this rain is likely to fall across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. As the fronts push south, they may fizzle out, meaning little or no rainfall for the places that need it most, in the south and east.

As for the rest of summer, it is too far off to know for sure, but there are hints that things could stay mainly dry and warm, especially in the south, although summer thunderstorms are possible.

Keep up to date with the latest forecast on the BBC Weather website or app .

Image source, BBC Weather Watchers/silverloon Image caption, Farmers in many parts of the UK are having to adapt to protect livestock and crops

Due to the combination of prolonged dry weather and increased demand for water, hosepipe bans are in force for millions of customers in England.

River flows have decreased in recent weeks in England according to the Environment Agency , external , with 87% of catchments now at "below normal to exceptionally low levels".

In Wales, where just 5% of July rainfall has fallen, Natural Resources Wales has moved the worst affected regions in the north and south-east into "prolonged dry weather status", the first step in its drought plan.

Farmers and growers are "working around the clock to harvest crops which have come early, keep fruit and vegetables watered, and care for their livestock", according to Paul Tompkins, deputy president of the National Farmers' Union.

"Parts of the country, particularly in the east and south, have seen exceptionally low rainfall this spring and summer," which he said could mean, "another difficult and expensive harvest after extreme weather impacts in both 2024 and 2025".

As the effects of human-induced climate change continue, the Met Office expects our summers to become hotter and drier , external in the future. In fact, by 2070, our summers could be up to 60% drier and 1-6C warmer compared to 1990.

The challenge for government, farmers, health services, and all of us will be in strengthening resilience to climate volatility and adapting to the many changes that lie ahead as the world continues to warm.

Has the British summer changed beyond recognition?